Solar ROI in Nigeria: why payback promises come after measurement, not before
Why a solar payback figure quoted before your site is measured is a guess — and how to build a decision-grade business case from measured data.
MGM Energy technical team · Commercial · 2026-09-21
'What's the payback?' is the right question from a finance director. The problem is when it gets answered in the first meeting. A payback figure depends on four numbers — your full current energy cost, your measured load, the system's itemised price, and how the system will actually be operated — and a contractor who has not measured your site knows at most one of them.
What goes into an honest business case
- Current cost, all of it: grid (with VAT), fuel, servicing, repairs and the operational cost of outages.
- Measured demand: a 7-day logger study, not a nameplate list.
- An itemised quotation: equipment, balance of system, installation, commissioning and the NEMSA inspection fee.
- Financing cost, if the system is bank-financed — it belongs in the case, not beside it.
- Assumptions stated openly: fuel price, grid hours, exchange rate for any imported items.
Why exposure is the better starting point
Payback treats the system as an investment product. For most businesses it is better understood as risk control: turning unpredictable energy exposure into a plan whose costs you can forecast. That framing survives changes in fuel price and tariffs; a single payback number usually does not.
When the measurement is done, the numbers can be built properly — and you can test them against your own assumptions rather than ours.